Transcript and Presenter’s Notes

Title: Dissertation Proposal

1
Dissertation Proposal
Dental Qualifying Exam November. 30, 2005 CCPO

• Research of Physical and Biological Factors
  Figuring out West Antarctic Peninsula Adlie
  Penguin Population Dynamics
• Data Analysis
• Linking prey field to physical features (ocean-ice)
• Modeling Study
• Foraging, chick growth along with a population matrix
  simulations

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Outline

• General Interest and Research Philosophy
• Research trends (context)
• Ecological context
• Research Questions
• Research Plan

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General Research Interest

• Using modeling and observational techniques
  to review the connection between climate
  variability and ecosystem behavior.

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Research Philosophy

• Combine conservative and dangerous goals to maximise
  contribution and chances for effective
  completing research.
• Maintain communication with expertise.
• Create atmosphere that will permit for on-going
  critique and assessment of research.

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Marine Ecosystem Research

• Growing curiosity about the influence of Climate on
  Environments.
• Curiosity about climate variability causing regime
  change among multiple stable-states.
• Free airline Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is definitely an
  excellent model where ENSO may influence
  atmospheric temperature and ocean-ice.

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Top Predator and Southern Sea Research

• Census and foraging behavior of seabirds
  are used to index effects of
  ecological variability.
• Lengthy-term data-sets and accessibility to
  atmospheric variability indices facilitate
  time-series analyses.

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WAP Research

• Underlying mechanisms behind patterns are now being
  investigated.

Fraser and Hofmann 2003, A predators perspective
on causal links between global warming, physical
forcing and ecosystem response. MEPS

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Ecological Context

• Warming (.56 C decade-1 Turner et al. 2005)
• Maximum ocean-ice coverage becoming less (15,000
  km2 year -1 Kwok and Comiso, 2002)
• Timing of ocean-ice advance and retreat altering
  (duration lower .three days year -1 Cruz et al.
  2002)
• Krill populations declining (50 decline since
  1976 Atkinson et al. 2004 )
• Antarctic silverfish populations declining
  (Adelie diets, internet tows Fraser, personal
  communciation)
• Anvers Island Adelie populations lower (40 since
  1974 Fraser and Patterson, 1997)
• Avian Island Adelie populations up (100 since
  1974 Woehler, 2993 Fraser, unpublished data)

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Research Questions

• 1. How’s the prey field impacted by variation
  circulation and ocean-ice?
• 2. How’s Adlie foraging, chick growth and
  fledging weights breeding colonies impacted by
  variability within the prey field?
• 3. Can these influences explain opposition
  population trajectories at ANV and AVI?
• 4. How are Adlie penguin population
  trajectories impacted by variations within the
  ecological structure and prey availability?

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Atmospheric temperature

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

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Atmospheric temperature

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

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Data Ocean-ice, silverfish time-series

• Ocean-ice data
• NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
  concentration.
• 25km grid
• Daily and monthly data since March. 1978
• Antarctic Silverfish composition
• Diet sample data
• Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
• One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995

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100 km and 200 km varies from colonies

lt15 ice coverage

gt15 ice coverage

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Information Systems Ocean-ice, silverfish time-series

• Ocean-ice
• Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
  and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands
• Maximum ocean-ice extent
• Antarctic silverfish
• Percent composition in Adlie diet
• Spearman rank correlation

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Anticipated Contributions Ocean-ice, silverfish
time-series

• Advance knowledge of the circumstances
  surrounding disappearance of silverfish from diet
  at ANV.
• Find out the age-type of fish contained in the
  diet at ANV, AVI?
• Results will suggest physical-biological
  processes affecting the distribution of
  silverfish around the peninsula.
• Results can help in parameterizing modeling
  efforts.

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Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

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Data Ocean-ice, krill census time-series

• Ocean-ice data
• NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
  concentration.
• 25km grid
• Daily and monthly data since March. 1978
• Antarctic krill data
• Diet sample data
• Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
• One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995

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Information Systems Ocean-ice, krill census
time-series

• Ocean-ice
• Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
  and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands
• Maximum ocean-ice extent
• Antarctic krill
• Virtual Population Analysis
• Krill growth rates (between seasons (ANV, AVI),
  within seasons (ANV))
• Krill durability (ANV)
• Recruitment occasions (ANV)
• Spearman rank correlation
• Krill growth rates only. Relationship between
  krill durability and recruitment occasions assessed
  qualitatively.

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Fraser and Hofmann 2003

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d

Rate Of Growth

Relative presence

T1

T2

Krill length

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Anticipated Contributions Ocean-ice, krill
census time-series

• Evaluate the connection between physical
  atmosphere and vital rates in krill.
• Provide important relationship to be used in model
  parameterizations.

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Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Adult foraging model.

3

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

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ADULT FORAGING MODEL SCHEMATIC

Prey Field

Ingestion, Penguin adult

– Ingestion, chick

Chick Growth Model

Ingested food beyond Individual needs

Assimilated mass

– Respiratory system losses ( swimming resting
foraging)

Telemetry Data

Adult growth ( or -)

Estimate from literature

Survivorship (reproductive cost)

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Data Adult Foraging Model

• Telemetry studies (ANV, AVI1999 to provide)
• Foraging location, duration
• Activity budget (time spent diving, swimming,
  resting)
• Energetics data
• BMR, Swimming, sitting on ice, on land.
• Feeding rate
• Estimates from stomach mass, energetic
  expenditure during foraging trip (e.g. Chappell
  et al. 1993)
• Mass(t) of adult penguins (ANV 1986 to
  present?)

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Anticipated Contributions Adult foraging model

• Assess our understanding from the linkage between
  physical-biological atmosphere and foraging
  behavior
• Supply the mechanistic framework to check the
  influence of ecological conditions and
  variability on penguin foraging.
• Model might be modified to look at other processes
  of great interest

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Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Adult foraging model.

3

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

Chick growth modeling.

4

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CHICK GROWTH MODEL SCHEMATIC

Adult foraging model

Ingestion, Penguin chick

Assimilated mass

Field collected data

Believed from literature

– Respiratory system loss

Internet productivity

Chick growth

Fledge

Dying

Recruitment

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Data Chick Growth Model

• Salihoglu parameterizations
• Field collected data.
• Feeding rate
• Daily weighing of marked chicks during crche
  period to derive feeding rates, chick growth.
• Immediate growth measurements at AVI 1999
  to provide.
• Caloric content of prey (t).
• Explosive device calorimeter at ANV and AVI.

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Anticipated Contributions Chick growth model

• Allows analysis from the influence of
  diet complexity around the development of chicks.
• The model is going to be parameterized to evaluate varied
  conditions and penguin prey field around the west
  Antarctic Peninsula.

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Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Adult foraging model.

3

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

Leslie Matrix Simulations.

Chick growth modeling.

5

4

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Data Leslie Matrix Simulations

• Lengthy-term demographic studies (circum-Antarctic)
• Modified to represent populations on west
  Antarctic Peninsula (banding studies at ANV)

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Linked Model Simulations

• Historic conditions at Anvers Island
• Current conditions at Anvers Island and Avian
  Island
• Future climate scenarios

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Anticipated Contributions Combined model
simulations

• Models might be modified and expanded to deal with
  future research questions.
• Will assess condition of current understanding.

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Questions? Comments? Concerns?

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