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Phd thesis proposal presentation ppt sample

Transcript and Presenter’s Notes

Title: Dissertation Proposal

1
Dissertation Proposal
Dental Qualifying Exam November. 30, 2005 CCPO

  • Research of Physical and Biological Factors
    Figuring out West Antarctic Peninsula Adlie
    Penguin Population Dynamics
  • Data Analysis
  • Linking prey field to physical features (ocean-ice)
  • Modeling Study
  • Foraging, chick growth along with a population matrix
    simulations

2
Outline

  • General Interest and Research Philosophy
  • Research trends (context)
  • Ecological context
  • Research Questions
  • Research Plan

3
General Research Interest

  • Using modeling and observational techniques
    to review the connection between climate
    variability and ecosystem behavior.

4
Research Philosophy

  • Combine conservative and dangerous goals to maximise
    contribution and chances for effective
    completing research.
  • Maintain communication with expertise.
  • Create atmosphere that will permit for on-going
    critique and assessment of research.

5
Marine Ecosystem Research

  • Growing curiosity about the influence of Climate on
    Environments.
  • Curiosity about climate variability causing regime
    change among multiple stable-states.
  • Free airline Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is definitely an
    excellent model where ENSO may influence
    atmospheric temperature and ocean-ice.

6
Top Predator and Southern Sea Research

  • Census and foraging behavior of seabirds
    are used to index effects of
    ecological variability.
  • Lengthy-term data-sets and accessibility to
    atmospheric variability indices facilitate
    time-series analyses.

7
WAP Research

  • Underlying mechanisms behind patterns are now being
    investigated.

Fraser and Hofmann 2003, A predators perspective
on causal links between global warming, physical
forcing and ecosystem response. MEPS

Phd thesis proposal presentation ppt sample Or use it



8

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9
Ecological Context

  • Warming (.56 C decade-1 Turner et al. 2005)
  • Maximum ocean-ice coverage becoming less (15,000
    km2 year -1 Kwok and Comiso, 2002)
  • Timing of ocean-ice advance and retreat altering
    (duration lower .three days year -1 Cruz et al.
    2002)
  • Krill populations declining (50 decline since
    1976 Atkinson et al. 2004 )
  • Antarctic silverfish populations declining
    (Adelie diets, internet tows Fraser, personal
    communciation)
  • Anvers Island Adelie populations lower (40 since
    1974 Fraser and Patterson, 1997)
  • Avian Island Adelie populations up (100 since
    1974 Woehler, 2993 Fraser, unpublished data)

10
Research Questions

  • 1. How’s the prey field impacted by variation
    circulation and ocean-ice?
  • 2. How’s Adlie foraging, chick growth and
    fledging weights breeding colonies impacted by
    variability within the prey field?
  • 3. Can these influences explain opposition
    population trajectories at ANV and AVI?
  • 4. How are Adlie penguin population
    trajectories impacted by variations within the
    ecological structure and prey availability?

11
Atmospheric temperature

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

12
Atmospheric temperature

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Chick growth



Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

13
Data Ocean-ice, silverfish time-series

  • Ocean-ice data
  • NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
    concentration.
  • 25km grid
  • Daily and monthly data since March. 1978
  • Antarctic Silverfish composition
  • Diet sample data
  • Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
  • One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995

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100 km and 200 km varies from colonies

lt15 ice coverage

gt15 ice coverage

16
Information Systems Ocean-ice, silverfish time-series

  • Ocean-ice
  • Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
    and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands
  • Maximum ocean-ice extent
  • Antarctic silverfish
  • Percent composition in Adlie diet
  • Spearman rank correlation

17
Anticipated Contributions Ocean-ice, silverfish
time-series

  • Advance knowledge of the circumstances
    surrounding disappearance of silverfish from diet
    at ANV.
  • Find out the age-type of fish contained in the
    diet at ANV, AVI?
  • Results will suggest physical-biological
    processes affecting the distribution of
    silverfish around the peninsula.
  • Results can help in parameterizing modeling
    efforts.

18
Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

19
Data Ocean-ice, krill census time-series

  • Ocean-ice data
  • NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
    concentration.
  • 25km grid
  • Daily and monthly data since March. 1978
  • Antarctic krill data
  • Diet sample data
  • Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
  • One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995

20
Information Systems Ocean-ice, krill census
time-series

  • Ocean-ice
  • Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
    and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands
  • Maximum ocean-ice extent
  • Antarctic krill
  • Virtual Population Analysis
  • Krill growth rates (between seasons (ANV, AVI),
    within seasons (ANV))
  • Krill durability (ANV)
  • Recruitment occasions (ANV)
  • Spearman rank correlation
  • Krill growth rates only. Relationship between
    krill durability and recruitment occasions assessed
    qualitatively.

21
Fraser and Hofmann 2003

22

d

Rate Of Growth

Relative presence

T1

T2

Krill length

23
Anticipated Contributions Ocean-ice, krill
census time-series

  • Evaluate the connection between physical
    atmosphere and vital rates in krill.
  • Provide important relationship to be used in model
    parameterizations.

24
Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Adult foraging model.

3

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

25
ADULT FORAGING MODEL SCHEMATIC

Prey Field

Ingestion, Penguin adult

– Ingestion, chick

Chick Growth Model

Ingested food beyond Individual needs

Assimilated mass

– Respiratory system losses ( swimming resting
foraging)

Telemetry Data

Adult growth ( or -)

Estimate from literature

Survivorship (reproductive cost)

26
Data Adult Foraging Model

  • Telemetry studies (ANV, AVI1999 to provide)
  • Foraging location, duration
  • Activity budget (time spent diving, swimming,
    resting)
  • Energetics data
  • BMR, Swimming, sitting on ice, on land.
  • Feeding rate
  • Estimates from stomach mass, energetic
    expenditure during foraging trip (e.g. Chappell
    et al. 1993)
  • Mass(t) of adult penguins (ANV 1986 to
    present?)

27
Anticipated Contributions Adult foraging model

  • Assess our understanding from the linkage between
    physical-biological atmosphere and foraging
    behavior
  • Supply the mechanistic framework to check the
    influence of ecological conditions and
    variability on penguin foraging.
  • Model might be modified to look at other processes
    of great interest

28
Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Adult foraging model.

3

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

Chick growth modeling.

4

29
CHICK GROWTH MODEL SCHEMATIC

Adult foraging model

Ingestion, Penguin chick

Assimilated mass

Field collected data

Believed from literature

– Respiratory system loss

Internet productivity

Chick growth

Fledge

Dying

Recruitment

30
Data Chick Growth Model

  • Salihoglu parameterizations
  • Field collected data.
  • Feeding rate
  • Daily weighing of marked chicks during crche
    period to derive feeding rates, chick growth.
  • Immediate growth measurements at AVI 1999
    to provide.
  • Caloric content of prey (t).
  • Explosive device calorimeter at ANV and AVI.

31
Anticipated Contributions Chick growth model

  • Allows analysis from the influence of
    diet complexity around the development of chicks.
  • The model is going to be parameterized to evaluate varied
    conditions and penguin prey field around the west
    Antarctic Peninsula.

32
Atmospheric temperature

Virtual population analysis.

2

Antarctic krill distribution/abundance

Ocean-Ice

Circulation

Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance

Time-series correlation.

1

Productivity

Adult foraging

Adult survival

Penguin population Trajectory

Adult foraging model.

3

Chick growth

Dying

Fledgling survival, recruitment

Fledge

Leslie Matrix Simulations.

Chick growth modeling.

5

4

33
Data Leslie Matrix Simulations

  • Lengthy-term demographic studies (circum-Antarctic)
  • Modified to represent populations on west
    Antarctic Peninsula (banding studies at ANV)

34
Linked Model Simulations

  • Historic conditions at Anvers Island
  • Current conditions at Anvers Island and Avian
    Island
  • Future climate scenarios

35
Anticipated Contributions Combined model
simulations

  • Models might be modified and expanded to deal with
    future research questions.
  • Will assess condition of current understanding.

36
Questions? Comments? Concerns?

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